中国普通彩电已经崩盘
跨国品牌基地转移带来新的产业转向
未来十年背投彩电的主流地位已经被确定
中国彩电品牌在还在普通彩电的利润谷底痴等
唯一的长虹及早跳出崩盘的震荡抓住了下一个十年
帕勒咨询公司最近发布的报告认为，已经有充分的证据表明：中国目前的普通彩电业已经全面崩盘了。到今天这样的结论应该再也没有什么大的疑问与争议了。
康佳亏损接近7个亿，一直喊着自己老有大定单的创维亏损，在财务技术上一直作着调整的海信也是纸里包不住火，厦华继续亏损。亏损已成为行业态势，虽然各家对自己亏损的原因表述不一，但这种齐刷刷的亏损成为普通彩电崩盘的最好注脚。
市场对彩电业的巨大亏损不应该有多大惊讶。帕勒公司认为，实际上在1998年之后，中国普通彩电业就已经出现了全面的亏损，虽然，之后还有很多公司宣布自己依然在彩电业务上赢利，细心一点就会发现，所谓赢利的彩电企业实际上在用其他业务的利润来支持自己的彩电利润，彩电业务成了一个漂亮的壳，很多彩电企业已经靠自己的房地产业或者是资本市场的小动作所得为彩电输血。
实际上亏损还远不只这些，报出来的亏损财务数字只是冰山一角。看一看彩电巨头在全国各地巨大仓库里堆积如山的陈货，你才会知道他们真正的亏损，但在账面上这样铁定的亏损根本没有体现出来。一些大的彩电企业从来都不敢、也没有盘一下自己的库存与各地分公司的陈年老账，如果来一次清盘，结果肯定是资不抵债。
普通彩电业务的崩盘不只是本土企业，跨国家电品牌也难逃厄运。日立公司已经从生产普通电视的福州合资企业中撤资，并将自己48％的股份出售给了当地的合资伙伴。JVC（日本胜利公司）已关闭了位于福州和武汉的两家工厂，还有很多跨国企业计划或正在准备从普通彩电业务中撤出。
除了非洲等一些落后国家外，普通彩电时代已经在全球范围内基本结束。从中国普通彩电业务中撤出实际上是跨国巨头全球业务重组的一部分。从技术以及产品上看，实际上是普通彩电的结束与一种新的高技术产品的开始，彩电产业的技术升级经过近10年的市场教育后，真正的数字化、大屏幕彩电的产业化落实的时代已经来了。
我们看这种产业结构的调整，跨国巨头明显的走在了本土企业的前面。跨国巨头制造基地向中国转移本来就是产品升级换代的最好调整，撤出普通彩电的同时，另外一种快速的进入更是令人称奇。
索尼在上海的合资厂目前只生产29英寸及29英寸以上的电视和背投彩电了，JVC正在着手生产超薄型大屏幕等离子电视与高清晰度数字背投彩电。大连东芝准备扩大投资以扩充背投彩电的产能，此外，日立还在深圳建立了大屏幕投影电视专用的投影管生产基地——深圳赛格显示器有限公司，同时投资40亿日元建背投彩电生产线，松下也向中国推出了背投彩电，一直没有介入中国普通彩电市场的法国汤姆逊公司也开始投资背投彩电，三星、LG也开始扩大背投彩电的生产。
相反，中国彩电企业就是在跨国巨头数字背投彩电在中国布局的之时，还在犹豫置疑背投彩电的市场前景并走入另外两种误区，从而失掉了背投机会。
帕勒咨询认为，由于过早多元化的错误，中国本土彩电业的产业结构调整已经失拍。中国大的彩电企业在彩电一个产品有了资本积蓄之后，没有在产品的一些相对关键性技术做投入，而是快速的进入了PC、空调、冰箱、洗衣机、小家电等不同的行业，而这些产品的市场状况与彩电没有什么太大的差别，本来想在多个领域内收获，却在多个领域内受到拖累，彩电救不了其他产品，其他产品也只能给彩电帮倒忙了，康佳、TCL、海信、创维等企业都传出PC、冰箱等项目严重亏损的消息。
在多元化耗进了大笔的积蓄之后，在彩电技术的突围路线上也犯了明显的错误。中国彩电突围的道路本质上看有两条，一是长虹根据国际彩电技术与国际以及中国市场的实际走的背投彩电路线，现在看这条路线的成功已经曙光初现。另外一条就是海信与TCL的信息化彩电路线，这条路线严重背离了世界彩电发展的阶段性技术走向，脱离了中国市场的实际，所以海信互动电视与TCL的HID实际上都成为概念正确的、遥远的产业太阳，能看到光芒但感受不到热量。
现在看，除长虹外由彩电发展起来的家电集团没有在任何一个产品上获得相对关键的技术，技术的落伍，导致了市场的直接落后。
一个奇怪的现象出现了。以前，因为中国的制造成本低，跨国巨头向中国彩电企业OEM产品，加上自己的牌子之后赚取高额利润。在背投彩电上正好倒过来，除长虹有自己的技术与制造能力外，其他所有中国彩电品牌都不能制造背投彩电，一台背投彩电的利润是一车普通电视的利润，利润可观但自己不能制造，只能向跨国巨头OEM背投彩电，但是，这样OEM过来的背投彩电的价格比跨国品牌的背投彩电的价格还要高，所以很多本土品牌的背投彩电根本没有市场竞争力，而比跨国品牌背投产品价格低的则是OEM过来的落后的背投产品。
没有技术只能做OEM挣加工钱，现在没有技术要做反向的OEM，连加工钱都没的挣，没有技术超前的恶果已经显现。
彩电格局回到了20年前，但那时跨国巨头投资的是现在的普通彩电。20年时间，普通电视在中国已经从家庭大件变为普通消费品，这个市场逐渐远去。未来十年中国市场的彩电图景已经非常清楚：背投数字彩电将成为中国彩电市场的主流。不仅在中国，在日本、美国、欧洲背投彩电已经潮流而起了。
虽然本土彩电企业对背投彩电的市场前景感到遥远，但是跨国巨头的举动已经不是在做试探，背投彩电大规模产业化时代已经开始了。
跨国巨头20年前在中国投资的时候，中国没有一个彩电品牌，20年之后的今天，中国已经有了自己的彩电品牌，但可惜的是，在向下一个十年进行技术转移的时候，中国只有长虹一个品牌。
在普通彩电上赚足利润的长虹及早转身，开始了背投彩电技术的研发，在大家的置疑声中研制出拥有自主知识产权的背投彩电，目前已经成为中国背投彩电市场份额增长速度最快的品牌，成功的狙击了东芝、SONY、日立等跨国品牌，并以自己的特有的价格优势迅速扩大着自己的市场份额，可喜的是长虹的背投彩电的增长幅度超过了1000%，国内品牌仅有的20%左右的占有率，长虹自己就占到了19%左右。
从行业发展分析来看，长虹在普通彩电上拿到了最多的利润后，它并没有盲目的延展自己的产品线，把自己装扮成一个产品线丰富无比的大的家电企业，而是以技术为支撑点在彩电技术上投入巨资做了技术的前瞻性研发，现在看这个战略决策已经取得阶段性的成功。
这种成功更重要的是表现在全球市场上。在普通电视时代，长虹没有过早的走出去，因为没有品牌的走出去是没有多少利润的。在背投时代的长虹因为掌握了关键技术使自己与跨国巨头占到了同一起跑线上，还没有走出去，背投的定单已经走进来了，美国、欧洲的背投定单正在改变长虹。长虹的背投战略验证了一句老话：决策的成功是最大的成功，决策的失败是最大的失败。集中资源在技术长跑中跟住跨国巨头是明智的选择，但跟住的只有长虹一个。
英文版
Ordinary color TV manufacturers in China facing all-round business collapse
According to a report recently released by Pully Brand Technology Consulting Company, increasingly fierce competition has wiped out the profits margin of ordinary color TV manufacturers in China, and the whole ordinary color TV manufacturing sector in the country is facing an all-round business collapse.
According to statistics, Konka Group Co. posted about 700 million yuan (US$86.64 million) in loss for 2001, which was the second consecutive year for the company to report significant losses. Hisense Electric Company’s profits also kept declining, with arnings per share dropping from 0.4 yuan (US$0.05) when it got listings three years ago to the current negative 0.03 yuan (US$0.004). Although color TV giant Sichuan Changhong Electric Company’s results have a slight improvement from 2001, its earnings per share only reached 0.04 yuan (US$0.005). In addition, other color TV conglomerates, such as Skyworth and Xiahua, also posted losses. Ordinary color TV manufacturing sector in China has plunged into an all-round money-losing status.
As a matter of fact, ordinary color TV manufacturing sector was in all-round loss-making situation as early as in 1998. Although some companies claimed that they were still profitable in color TV manufacturing business, the so-called profitability was actually offset by earnings from other businesses. May color TV companies used their earnings from real estate business or capital market investment to support their collapsing color TV manufacturing.
The decline in ordinary color TV manufacturing business not only plagued domestic firms, but also hit some multinational brands. Japan-based Hitachi Electronics Ltd. has withdrawn its investment from its joint venture in Fuzhou, capital of Fujian province, and sold its 48 percent interest in the firm to local cooperation partners. Another Japanese company JVC also closed its two factories in Fuzhou and Wuhan, capital of Hubei province. There are also many multinational companies are planning to withdraw from the ordinary color TV sector.
The peak season for ordinary color TV has come to an end around the world, except in some underdeveloped countries in Africa and other continents. Scaling back from the ordinary color TV market in China is actually an important part of multinational companies’ global business restructuring.
Multinational companies once again advanced ahead of indigenous companies in this business structuring.
Sony Corp.’s joint venture in Shanghai now only manufactures 29-inch- and larger than 29-inch-screen color TV and rear-projection TV. JVC is managing to produce super-thin large-screen plasma TV and high- definition rear-projection color TV. Dalian Toshiba plans to increase investment to expand production capacity of rear-projection TV, and Hitachi has set up a large-screen projection ray tube (PRT) manufacturing base, Shenzhen Seg-Hitachi Color Display Devices Company Limited, and poured 4 billion Japanese yen (US$30.79 million) in rear-projection TV manufacturing. Matsushita Electric Industrial Co., Ltd. also launched rear-projection TVs onto the Chinese market. French company Thomson SA, which did not get involved in China’s ordinary color TV market, started to invest in rear-projection TV manufacturing. In addition South Korean company Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. and LG also started to expand rear-projection TV manufacturing.
In contrast to foreign competitors’ responses, when foreign giants were shifting their focus to the rear-projection market in China, Chinese companies hesitated, doubting the market prospect, and hence missed out the opportunity.
According to Pully Brand Technology Consulting Company, Chinese companies engaged in business diversifying too early, which already made it miss some industry restructuring opportunities. Big color TV manufacturers failed to make investment in some key technologies after building up capital. Instead, they swiftly diversified their business into personal computers, air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines and some small home appliances. However, market conditions of these products have no significant difference from that of color TV. These companies, which intended to reap profits from multiple fields, found their business deteriorating in many sectors. Color TV cannot help the companies to perform better in other fields, while other businesses diverted these firms’ efforts in color TV manufacturing and marketing. Konka, TCL and Hisense all posted significant losses in their PC and refrigerator businesses.
After new business expansion consumed huge amount of investment of these color TV giants, these firms, intending to make a breakthrough, made serious mistakes in choosing technology solutions. There were two ways for the breakthrough. One is manufacturing rear-projection TVs in line with international color TV technology standards and the actual market demand in China, which has proved to be a shortcut to success. Sichuan Changhong
Electric Company adopted this strategy. The other, which was adopted by Hisense and TCL, is integrating information technology with color TV manufacturing. This strategy proves to be not in line with international color TV technology development trend and not compatible with the actual market demand in China. Hisense’s strategy in making interactive TVs and TCL’s strategy in producing HID (home information display) products turned out to be inefficient in generating profits, although they are feasible theoretically and the products seemingly have promising prospect.
The outlook of color TV market in China for the next 10 years has become very clear. High-end products led by digital rear-projection TVs are expected to be leading items in China’s color TV market. Sichuan Changhong Electric Company is the only indigenous manufacturer who seized the opportunity.（brandl）
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